Monte Carlo Method

Hello, I have this assignment that I don't understand at all. here are the instructions:

Write a program that uses the Monte Carlo sampling method to estimate
the average number of bottles of e-Boost someone would have to drink to
win a prize. There is a 1 in 5 chance that a bottle cap will have a prize.

and here is what i have so far:

Code java:

//import the classes
import java.io.IOException;
import java.util.Scanner;
import java.io.File;
import java.util.Random;
public class montecarlomethod
{
    public static void main(String[] args) throws IOException
    {
        Scanner in = new Scanner(System.in);
        Random rand = new Random();
 
        int count = 0;
 
        System.out.print("Number of Trials: ");
        int numTrials = in.nextInt();
 
       //randomly generate the value of the "guessing" cap
        int randBottleCap = rand.nextInt(5)+1;
 
        //Loop to increment through the number of trials    
        for(int i = 1; i <= numTrials; i++)
        {
            int winningCap = rand.nextInt(5)+1;
 
            //check to see if the "guessing" cap is equal to the winning cap
            if( randBottleCap != winningCap)
            {
                count++;
                randBottleCap = rand.nextInt(5)+1;
            }
            else
            {
                System.out.println(count);
            }
 
        }
    }
}